🔗 Share this article

On occasions when the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are sent across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has compelled Lithuania's main airport into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the government are convinced they are facing something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to have an effect on adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, border units deploy in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent after dark.

Units establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any company that can devise how to safely stop them.

For now, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also serve as a deterrent.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."