Behind this Pomp of Putin's Delhi Visit: The India-Russia Bond That Has Weakened.

This rhetoric and visuals from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India projected a robust bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the statesmen shared a car journey, mirroring a known diplomatic style. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India during his 25-year rule and his 20th encounter with Modi after the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Divide Between Symbolism and Substance

Nevertheless, a noticeable gap persists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded a series of agreements covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, expected announcements on major military deals did not materialize. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend driven by delays in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own wartime needs.

A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Weight

This all indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical weight it previously possessed. In the Cold War, India maintained special trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have attempted to maintain a semblance of this special tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same importance as New Delhi has significantly deepened ties with the Western world.

Broadening and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to cut its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as Western coercion increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to broaden the partnership into new areas. On Putin's trip, they announced an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, balanced and sustainable". This involves improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from space and nuclear energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Bonds and Seen Reliability

At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, especially among senior cohorts of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial support during the Cold War. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid recent tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have made critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable ally.

The key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been minimal.

Squaring the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope

This situation does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's international stance. The country is set to conclude a trade deal with the EU, after a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a major irritant in its relations with the Western bloc. However, should a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will certainly continue in Western governments.