A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
