🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still