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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a strong stance on Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "serious consequences" last August if Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", much of the initiative in reality compromise that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business background, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, as if giving Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a damaged swath of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding Russia with territory that its military have been failed to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a open way to the capital in case he subsequently opt to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a action that would make renewed fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan states: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. However, Trump sets no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal has Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a return of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics vary from vague to alarming. The plan would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. However different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not